Former National Bank governor: this is why Hungary might leave the EU
According to András Simor, the former Governor of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB), Hungary may leave the EU. Although he has never thought that the country would reach that stage, due to the developments of recent weeks, now he would not rule out such a scenario.
In his report to Jelen, the former governor of MNB explains why he thinks that Hungary might exit the European Union. However, first, he lists 4 reasons why he previously believed it was an unrealistic scenario.
1: EU funds
“On the one hand, EU funds are of enormous importance to the Hungarian economy, as well as to the Fidesz oligarchs.” – he writes.
“I thought that Orbán would leave no stone unturned to release this money and, as he did in the past, he would make some small (or out of necessity, perhaps a little bigger) gestures to the Union, which would reopen the money taps.”
2: Economy
Regarding the Hungarian economy, a possible exit would cause immeasurable damage.
“In a country whose foreign trade accounted for 157 percent of GDP in 2020, and within which the EU accounted for 78 percent of total Hungarian exports, the negative effects of a possible exit cannot be overestimated.”
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3: Hungarian population is pro-EU
András Simor mentions public opinion as his third reason. According to previous polls and research, the Hungarian population seems to be pro-EU. – reports index.hu.
4: Orbán’s personal political future
Last but not least, Orbán’s personal political future might be at stake.
“He wants to see himself as a political figure of European significance today, but he needs to know that he can have that title only, and only as long as he can perform on the stage of the European Union.”
Hungary’s prime minister can only get special attention if he represents a member state of the EU.
Photo: FB/Viktor Orbán
Then why would Hungary leave the EU?
In the last three months, the situation has changed – thinks the former governor of MNB. Although the prime minister has had some unanticipated reactions in the past, this time it is even more different from what András Simor expected.
“He did not seek mutual (pretended) compromises, but he chose confrontation.”
In the case of the oil embargo, Hungary’s position seems to be reasonable as it aligns with the country’s economic interests. However, the veto on the sanctioning of Patriarch Kirill was, in András Simor’s opinion, only to show the leaders of the Union that Orbán has the potential to blackmail this unanimous decision-making system.
“Either you give me the money or I make the Union impossible, Orbán said with the veto.”
How might the EU react?
The former Governor of the National Bank sees two possible ways how EU leaders might respond to such a situation. In the first scenario, they make another unprincipled compromise, squeeze out some apparent concessions from Orbán, which he then, as usual, neutralises with other measures, and EU funds are restarted.
On the other hand, EU leaders may say: “There is nothing to see here. (I think that will be the visceral reaction of the heads of government now.) They also have more important problems than dealing with Orbán.” – believes the former Governor of the National Bank.
As the previously mentioned way is much riskier and requires a lot more effort, the Union will likely choose the second option. If Orbán is good for Hungarians, let them be.
“Yet, it seems that this time it is not possible to smooth out this conflict as easily as before. The European Parliament, the opinion-forming public body of each country is also putting more pressure than ever on the heads of government not to sweep the cause of the Orbán autocracy back under the rug.”
Read alsoEU: Hungary could be fined for dual pricing
Source: index.hu, jelen.hu
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2 Comments
“as well as to the Fidesz oligarchs.” – he writes.” Interesting that even the former head of the National Bank recognises and publicly says where EU money is going, as in to a tight knit and thoroughly corrupt cabal.
Fact based artical.
Citizens of Hungary – take note.
Perilous for Hungary, if a RECKLESS decision, to leave the European Union was commenced.
The points and explanations capture MASSIVELY & FACTUALLY – under the current Fidesz Political Party – leadership of Prime Minister – Victor Orban.
Citizens of Hungary, businesses and companies throughout Hungary – are or will continue to pay deeply – for the DIRECTION, the style of this Fidesz led Government, it’s ‘Mantra” or Political Ideas & Philosophy.
Post the National Elections held April 2022 – the Power ladened IDEALOGY – of the Fidesz led Government – has it NOT become of greater Evidence – that it is styled as DICTATORIAL ?
Who are the FRIENDS of Hungary if you exclude Russia & China ?
The continuation the decline downward trending of the Hungarian Economy, the devaluation of the forint, major important “Core” factors to pay attention evaluate and analysis – in the performance of Hungarys – Financial & Economic position.
Sustainability of an Economy, in the FACTUAL case of Hungary – the “black” hole we have been placed in by the present Government, trending deeper, into what could be recorded and written as a “Mire” – to find an answer, that will SUSTAIN or hold to-gether the EMERGENT – Hungarian Economy, is Arduous.
The “dye” has been set firmly in place – over years by this present Hungarian Government, and a retraction, or change in direction, would be totally against – the “Mantra” of the Fidesz Party – the present Government of Hungary under Prime Minister – Victor Orban.
The broadsheet componentry of what really drive or determine the functionality of a countrys ECONOMY – looking at Hungary – the immediate, to near term and Future, paints a Dark picture.